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Research Update

January 2007

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Mobile WiMAX May Give Cellular a Run for Market Money

The majority of wireless activities today consists mostly of unlicensed 802.11 WiFi (WLAN) or licensed cellular (WWAN) communications networks, both of which are equipped to handle voice as well as data transmissions.

However, there is an emerging high-speed wireless technology, called Mobile WiMAX, that is not only capable of providing ‘broadband-class’ services, but is also better equipped to handle multimedia-rich information and support more users in congested urban settings. Experts also believe that Mobile WiMAX will be a less expensive and more viable alternative to cellular communications when it comes to high-bandwidth applications and data.

Mobile WiMAX could also compete with short-range wireless technologies like Bluetooth and ZigBee, since it can easily be used as a wireless pathway for embedded communications solutions as well. This means that we may soon see WiMAX chips in automobiles and household appliances, as well as cell phones and notebook computers.

In general, WiMAX, or World Interoperability for Microwave Access, is based on the IEEE 802.16 standard for extended-range fixed broadband wireless. The standard defines the use of bandwidth between 10GHz and 66GHz and 2GHz and 11GHz (licensed and unlicensed spectrums). It is also capable of covering roughly 30 square miles, which means that it can provide metro-scale broadband coverage and in many cases utilize existing cellular towers and structures.Fixed WiMAX (802.16d) has been in existence since 2002, and is presently deployed in more than 175 trials and operations throughout the world, according to the WiMAX Forum trade group (http://www.wimaxforum.org).

Efforts are now underway to refine and deploy a mobile version of WiMAX technology (802.16e) that is similar in operation to cellular in some respects, but provides a more robust and higher-speed pathway for data.

Mobile WiMAX deployments are expected to initially occur sometime late in 2007 and will quickly equal and surpass Fixed WiMAX sales sometime in 2008, says market researcher ABI Research.

Two U.S. companies that are committed to mobile WiMAX development are Intel Corp, and Motorola, Inc. Earlier this year, they invested a combined US$900Mto buy Clearwire Corp. (http://www.clearwire.com), a fixed WiMAX service provider that presently serves 200 cities and towns in the U.S., Ireland, Belgium, and Denmark. The proprietary service operates on the 2.5GHz licensed-spectrum and provides downlink speeds of 1.5M bits/second and uplink rates of up to 256K bits/second.

Intel hopes to use its investment to steer development in mobile WiMAX, and create an instant market for its 802.16e-compatible WiMAX chips, codenamed Rosedale 2, which supports a standard that can handle both fixed and mobile WiMAX duties. The Rosedale 2 chips are expected to be commercially available in laptops and other mobile systems as early as next year.

Meanwhile, Motorola is one of the first to incorporate 802.16e technology in a series of prototype handsets that are being used in a series of WiMAX trials that started in Japan in September.

Many experts believe that cellular technology may be hardest hit by mobile WiMAX since 3G technology operates at much slower transmission speeds than WiMAX, and is much more expensive. The latest version of 3G CDMA 2000, for example, promises speeds of up to 1.8 bits/second, although most users will average about 1M bits/second. WiMAX, on the other, hand is theoretically capable of providing average speeds of 5M bits/second, which is much faster than most current wired broadband services.

Wireless carriers in the U.S. have quickly recognized the potential of WiMAX to supplement, if not in many cases replace cellular services. Sprint-Nextel Corp. recently made a serious commitment to mobile WiMAX by forming a separate 4G division, and hopes to have a Mobile WiMAX network available within a year. Sprint has been looking at technologies offered by Samsung and Qualcomm’s Flarion Technologies group, as well as Motorola. Inc. In 2005, the company also partnered with Intel to test products and services and interoperability with other network protocols.

IBM Corp. and its Global Services systems integration unit is also looking seriously at WiMAX and has been working with partners on both fixed and mobile projects. Thus far, the company has about 35 fixed deployments underway, and just recently started on a project in California's Silicon Valley that will involve 42 municipalities and more than 2.5M people across 1500 square miles.

Airspan Networks, Inc. is another major WiMAX player, claiming 39 percent of the worldwide market and close relationships with Nortel and Ericsson as sales channel partners.

There are, however, some hurdles facing the acceptance and adoption of Mobile WiMAX. These include:

  • The cost of establishing Mobile WiMAX systems where there is no existing Fixed WiMAX infrastructure;
  • Advances in 802.11 WiFi technology and such developments like metro-scale mesh networking, which could impact the cost and reliability benefits of Mobile WiMAX;
  • The internal competition Mobile WiMAX might create for carriers like Sprint-Nextel and existing cellular services business;
  • Delays in the development and acceptance of ‘converged-capability’ mobile devices that incorporate cellular, WiFi and Mobile WiMAX chipsets;
  • Problems associated with owning the ‘geography’ necessary for both Fixed and Mobile WiMAX installations (which is where companies like Sprint and others may have an edge since they already own the towers).

Finally, there is the ‘real world’ application of Mobile WiMAX systems, which might deliver less than expected performance and capabilities, as is the case in the cellular world. While trials will be launched and continue over the next year or two, actual business deployments and use is not expected until the fourth quarter 2007.